Friday, October 28, 2005

The Practice Job (Part 3A - Drake's Law)

At the beginning of a transition, many many people go through the phase known as 'Part Time'. This means living part of your life presenting as one gender and part presenting as the other.

How the heck do you get away with it?

The chances of being discovered are far too high? Aren't they?

I will now go into a geekish subject area. I'll try to not let your eyes glaze over.

The Drake Equation is an attempt to determine the number of extra-terrestrial civilizations that we could come in contact with.

This is the equation:

The Drake equation states that:
N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
where:
N is the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy with which we might expect to be able to communicate

and

R* is the rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars which have planets
ne is average number of planets which can potentially
support life per star that has planets
fl is the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop life
fi is the fraction of the above which actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of the above which are willing and able to communicate
L is the expected lifetime of such a civilization

What this boils down to is a series of factors that each independently add a major portion to the equation. If the expected lifetime of a civilization is too small, for instance, no one will live long enough to communicate with anyone else.

So Geekette, you ask, how does this apply?

You! In the back row! Kindly stay awake!

Think of the factors that apply to your social circles.

How many social circles do you belong to?

How many people are in those
circles?

Where are they located geographically?

How large are
the social circles of each person you deal with?

How far from a given
area is a person likely to travel?

How noticeable are you (in any
circle)?

How many people are you dealing with?

If you are in a town of 200 people, the chances of keeping your lives quarantined from each other are next to nil. In a larger city, however, there is potential.

If you don't know all that many people the risk factors are lower. If you are the CEO of your company, it becomes much much harder. (ask me about Camp Counselor Syndrome)

If the towns in your area are relatively self-contained then people don't have to travel to the next town to get what they need. If there is only one mall for 300 miles then.....

If you are one of the invisible people (non descript) then you may work with people for years and they still don't know your name.

What I am saying is that you have to adjust what you can to make the equation work. If you are well known, you may have to move part-time further away. You may have to work at being non-descript (How? I have no idea).

Schools have cliques but they also have those who travel between social circles. There is a huge chance that your second life won't stay all that low profile for long.

So, if you apply your analysis of your situation right, the chances of being discovered are astronomical, right?

They get better but remember, someone always wins the lottery eventually.

Know what you are going to do if, even after all your consideration, the circles of your lives intersect.